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Thanks so much for providing this explanation! I did this nearly 40 years ago, and my explanation was terse, to put it mildly. It's been very gratifying that I actually did something useful, even though it was rather buried in a more general paper.

Thanks again.

d

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David Spiegelhalter
David Spiegelhalter

Written by David Spiegelhalter

Statistician, communicator about evidence, risk, probability, chance, uncertainty, etc. Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, Cambridge.

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