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Good point. In a sense every death loses life expectancy compared to the counterfactual world in which the person did not die at that point — and using the same reasoning as I did for Covid suggests that this is around 11 years on average. For cancers, I seem to remember that if cancer were abolished life expectancy for the population would increase by around 3 years. As around 28% of people die of cancer in the UK, this suggests cancer deaths loses on average around 11 years of life expectancy. But it’s only for Covid that it makes sense of removing the direct cause, as hopefully we will achieve in a few years.

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David Spiegelhalter
David Spiegelhalter

Written by David Spiegelhalter

Statistician, communicator about evidence, risk, probability, chance, uncertainty, etc. Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, Cambridge.

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